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UBS Analyst Warns Crypto Is Not an Asset as Bitcoin Whales and ETFs Exit the Market

George Ellis
4 Min Read

The cryptocurrency market is once again navigating turbulent waters, with Bitcoin experiencing its most significant daily decline since November 2022. That month marked the collapse of FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried’s exchange, which wiped out billions in investor savings. Now, the digital currency has dipped to $65.9K per coin, a notable fall from its October 2025 peak of approximately $125K. This downturn represents a 50% loss in value from its zenith, reaching a low of $61.3K just yesterday.

This current slump is largely attributed to significant selling pressure from major holders. Jefferies analyst Andrew Moss highlighted in a recent client note that “large BTC holders are selling into weakness,” observing a shift where “whales transitioned to net sellers over the weekend after accumulating since early January.” This trend among large-scale investors signals a potential lack of confidence, further exacerbated by outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows in late January and early February were among the largest since their inception, indicating that retail investors who accessed Bitcoin through traditional finance platforms are also withdrawing their capital.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, a company known for providing investors with Bitcoin exposure through its stock, has been particularly impacted. Shares in Strategy dropped 17% yesterday and are now down 75% from their peak last year. The company’s average acquisition price for its Bitcoin holdings stands at $76K, well above the current market price. Consequently, Strategy’s market capitalization has fallen billions below the value of the Bitcoin it currently holds. Despite this, during its Q4 earnings call, the company asserted its ability to cover all convertible debt even if Bitcoin’s value were to plummet by 90%, and confirmed sufficient cash reserves to honor dividends for the next two and a half years.

The prevailing sentiment among analysts suggests further challenges ahead. Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen pointed to yesterday’s performance as the worst daily decline since the FTX implosion. Adding to the cautious outlook, Jefferies’ Moss sees “few bullish indicators that suggest we may be approaching the bottom,” noting a critical absence of small and medium-sized holders attempting to “buy the dip.” This lack of broader market support indicates a deeper, more systemic issue than typical market fluctuations.

Chevy Cassar, a respected crypto newsletter author for Milk Road, openly admitted the current situation “sucks” and anticipates further declines. He suggested that, based on historical patterns, these assets could take anywhere from one to eleven months to hit bottom. Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, which positions itself as the world’s first regulated digital asset bank, echoed this sentiment, stating the “market is near exhaustion, peak fear territory.”

Amidst this market volatility, UBS analyst Paul Donovan offered a stark assessment, declaring, “Crypto is not an asset, and is held by a tiny portion of society. It is unlikely that consumer behavior will change because of recent market moves.” His direct observation underscores a persistent skepticism from traditional financial institutions regarding the fundamental nature and widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies. This perspective suggests that despite the significant price movements, the broader economic landscape and consumer habits may remain largely unaffected by the crypto market’s current struggles.

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George Ellis
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