Anthropic’s highly anticipated initial public offering is losing some of its shine. The artificial intelligence lab is preparing to kick off formal marketing next week, but a sharp selloff in AI and technology stocks has forced prospective investors to rethink how much the company is worth. People familiar with the discussions say buyers are now talking about a valuation range of roughly $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion, with some weighing a figure as low as $1.1 trillion.
From $2 trillion to $1.1 trillion in weeks
The shift is striking. As recently as early October, some investors had priced Anthropic’s potential market value as high as $2 trillion. By this week, before the rout, the conversation had settled closer to $1.4 trillion or $1.5 trillion. The new figures, if they hold, would represent a significant haircut and would test the appetite of public market investors for a company that is growing fast but also losing enormous sums of money.
The immediate trigger was a punishing day for technology shares. The Nasdaq 100 fell 6.4 percent on Thursday, wiping out about $2.3 trillion in market value and setting a one-session record for value destroyed. The Cboe Volatility Index jumped to its highest level since April 2025. For a company about to ask public investors to buy in at a twelve-figure valuation, that kind of turbulence is unwelcome.
Election results add policy uncertainty
The selloff followed a Democratic sweep of Congress in the November 3 midterm elections. Investors are now weighing the possibility of tougher federal and state oversight of data center construction, a business that underpins Anthropic’s ability to train and run large AI models. Roughly three dozen ballot measures aimed at slowing data center buildouts passed across the country, including in Ohio, a state that has become an important hub for new computing capacity.
Anthropic has committed to massive spending on the infrastructure needed to build and operate its Claude family of models. Any slowdown in permitting, power access, or construction could raise costs and delay expansion, making the company’s already ambitious growth targets harder to hit.
The numbers behind the listing
Anthropic’s finances are as large as its valuation aspirations. In an amended Form S-1 filed on Monday, the company reported $33.24 billion in revenue for the nine months ended September 30, up sharply from a year earlier. The same filing showed a net loss of $104 billion for the period, reflecting the enormous cost of developing and running frontier AI systems.
The company’s most recent private funding round valued it at $965 billion. A listing at $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion would still represent a meaningful step up from that last private mark, but it would be far below the $2 trillion figure that had been floated just a month ago. Anthropic plans to list its Class A common stock on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the ticker symbol ANT.
What investors are saying
Some prospective buyers had told the deal’s bankers that $1.4 trillion to $1.5 trillion felt like a reasonable price before the selloff, according to people familiar with the matter. After Thursday’s drop, that math looks less comfortable. Stephan Kemper, chief investment officer at BNP Paribas Wealth Management Germany, told Bloomberg that the price could end up at the bottom of the earlier $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion range, or even 10 percent to 15 percent below it.
Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at hedge fund Gallo Partners, had said ahead of the rout that Anthropic should aim for $1.3 trillion to $1.4 trillion in order to build a quality book of long term investors. Max Kettner, chief multi-asset strategist at HSBC Holdings, suggested on Bloomberg Radio that pricing near $1 trillion might feel safer, since a lower starting valuation could reduce the risk of violent swings once the stock begins trading.
Options on the table
Anthropic and its selling shareholders still have flexibility. One path is to launch marketing cautiously, starting with a smaller offering size and a lower valuation, then raising both if early demand is strong. Another option is to delay the roadshow entirely and wait for market conditions to settle. Securities rules require companies to keep filings public for at least 15 calendar days before formal marketing, but many issuers wait far longer.
The company had targeted a listing before the Thanksgiving holiday on November 26, with bankers potentially beginning the roadshow during the week of November 9. That timeline now looks tight if investors remain skittish. An Anthropic spokesperson declined to comment on the valuation discussions.
A referendum on AI valuations
Whatever price Anthropic ultimately sets, its debut is shaping up as a broader test of whether public investors are willing to keep funding the AI buildout at the valuations private markets have assigned. A successful offering could reopen the IPO window for other AI companies waiting to list. A weak reception could send a chill through the sector and force more startups to accept lower valuations or stay private longer.
For now, the deal's architects are navigating between two risks: pricing too high and watching the stock sink on day one, or pricing too low and leaving billions of dollars on the table. With markets this volatile, the safer choice may also be the less lucrative one.
